I do not believe that we have figured out the climate of the planet. I don't know if that makes me against the concept of man made global warming or not, though. I do think man has an effect on climate, but I don't believe it's to the extent popular culture leads people to believe. 

I guess I've seen the media hysteria over things like the coming ice age, the coming food shortage and the coming nuclear holocaust. None of those came true.

What I find particular disingenuous about the people who claim man made global warming is causing harm to the planet is their failure to admit when they are wrong. No one typifies this more than Dr. William Gray of Colorado State. 

Dr. Gray and his team at The Tropical Meteorology Project garner a ton of attention when they predict the upcoming hurricane seasons. For the year 2006, the team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The actual result was 9 named storms, five hurricanes and two major. Quit the miss. 

Now, don't underestimate what a colossal screw up this was for people. Dr. Gray and his team are paid great attention by everyone from FEMA to insurance companies to financial markets. Countless people paid higher premiums based on these predictions. Investments weren't made based on these predictions.

What was the follow-up from the team based on their monumental mistake? Nothing. No apology. They did try to explain how it happened, but I'm sorry, when you screw up this bad you've moved out of science and into Miss Cleo territory.

Here is what they said:

Of course, there are significant amounts of unexplained variance in a number of the individual parameter forecasts. Even though the skill for some of these parameter forecasts is somewhat low, especially for the early December lead time, there is a great curiosity in having some objective measure as to how active the coming hurricane season is likely to be. Therefore, even a forecast that is only modestly skillful is likely of interest.

No, duh.

They have released their 2007 Hurricane Predictions.  The Colorado Cleos are calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

I have no training in meteorology. I have no training in advanced science. I have no training in tropical weather. I will, however, make two sets of predictions. 

The first set of predictions are my gut feeling. I think there will be 16 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 1 that is major.

My next set of predictions are based on a random number. Here we go, 18 named storms, 11 named hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

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