Paul Baran Predictions Part 2

Paul Baran was a pioneer in packet switching technologies. He passed away on March 26, 2011. After his passing, the Institute for the Future published 30 of his predictions for a high capacity telecommunications system.

We’re looking at all 30 and this is 11-20.

1. Mass Mail and Direct Advertising Mail – SPAM, but also opt in emails alerts such as GroupOn.
2. Answering Services – Paul discusses an emergency process where the caller and situation is identified and passed on. This would be sort of a cellular 911. We have the identification down, but not the situation identification.
3. Grocery Price List, Information and Ordering – Nailed it. Back in the late 1990s many local grocery stores rushed to allow people to order through AOL. Now, you can order groceries from a variety of services, but worst case, you can get all your information online.
4. Access to Company Files – He talks about encryption, but more importantly, cross referencing. Online databases allow many companies to dig into their information to produce better results. At the time Paul made these predictions, a company’s information was stored in file folders.
5. Fares and Ticket Reservations – Of all his predictions he pretty much nailed this one. Paul even manages to say that the information and processes will exceed what is available through the gatekeepers of the day, travel agents.
6. Past and Forthcoming Events – When I first read this I thought it was pretty simple given the fact movie listings used to appear in the newspaper. Paul adds the words “short preview” and it becomes gold. We can now see trailers online and on demand.
7. Correspondence School – Hello, University of Phoenix and pretty much the entire For Profit education industry.
8. Daily Calendar and Appointment Reminders – Oh, yeah. Can you imagine how it was in the past? If it weren’t for my Outlook dinging me throughout the day, I’d blow right past meetings.
9. Computer Assisted Meetings – Ok, if you take Paul literally he says, “The computer acts as a partner …” We don’t have computers that we can speak to and expect them to run with things, but we do use computers as tools during meetings.
10. Newspaper, Electronic, General – The first big miss for Paul. He does get the paper being rewritten overnight or when news breaks, but he still thinks it’ll be printed and “ready for breakfast.”

Only two big misses on this list with number 19 and 20. Computers as partners doesn’t surprise me since I am still amazed we don’t have that yet. The newspaper one is revealing, though. Someone as visionary as Paul didn’t see a day when paper based communication would be irrelevant.

Related posts:

1. Paul Baran Predictions Part 1 photo
2. Paul Baran Predictions Part 1
3. IT project management success advice – part three
4. Bill Swanson unwritten business tips – part five
5. Bill Swanson project management tips – part four