Paul Baran Predictions Part 1

Paul Baran was a pioneer in packet switching technologies. He passed away on March 26, 2011. After his passing, the Institute for the Future published 30 of his predictions for a high capacity telecommunications system.

We’re looking at all 30 and this is 1-10.

1. Cashless Society Transactions – We have this today thanks to companies like Paypal, but also your local bank. Any bank that offers a bill paying service is making this a reality.
2. Dedicated Newspaper – Paul nailed this by saying the paper would be tailored to your interests and update on its own. Most newspaper sites allow you to mix and match sections, while Google News actually learns what you like to read.
3. Computer Aided School Instruction – Although Paul saw a computer tailoring the day’s lesson plan, he did get the interaction done. Some schools have begun outfitting all their students with iPads for this reason.
4. Shopping Transactions – Hello, Amazon.
5. Person to Person Paid Work At Home – At first glance it appears this came to be, but not as Paul saw it. He thought there would be a receptionist at a local doctor’s office that worked from her own home greeting patients. We haven’t moved there and I think it has more to do with how poorly voice mail and voice trees were implemented. Now, some fast food restaurants do have offsite order takers, but it is audio only.
6. Plays and Movies from a Video Library – Hello, Netflix.
7. Computer Tutor – Paul was all over this one by stating something that has become second nature to everyone who uses the internet now: “… in an interactive mode, will coach the pupil.”
8. Message Recording – Paul focused on video memory and uses the example of a doctor explaining a rash diagnosis to a patient. We don’t really do that, yet. With the proliferation of closed circuit monitoring we might have the ability to do this soon.
9. Secretarial Assistance – While not seeing the decline secretarial services, he did see the movement to automating more of these functions.
10. Household Mail and Messages – Email plays a large role in this prediction, but don’t overlook the interaction and communication on websites directly.

It is uncanny how many of these ideas have come to fruition. The only two that haven’t would be the telepresences from number 5 and the activity recording as usual for number 6.

Related posts:

1. Top 10 Technology Predictions for 2007